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FORECAST OF THE AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT FOR THE AMUR REGION  [2015]

Reymer V. V. Ulezko A. V. Tiutiunikov A. A. Dalnevostochniy state agrarian university [Corporate Author] Voronezh State Agrarian University [Corporate Author]

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This article explains the relevance of evaluation of agricultural growth, which can be achieved through the implementation of agricultural sectors’ innovative potential. The opportunities of agricultural growth are defined by the set of macroeconomic, sectoral and regional factors as well as the type of enterprises that have different levels of innovative susceptibility. The authors give an overview of the main methods of social and economic forecasting and justify the choice of the ARIMA (Autoregressive integrated moving average) as a tool for forecasting regional development of agriculture. The article presents the experts’ estimatesbased values of integrated indicators of agricultural exogenous factors and the ARIMA-parameters based on the use of these indicators for time series prediction of agricultural production in the Amur region. The authors conclude that the time series ARIMA-model of the gross agricultural production, taking into account the influence of innovation potential factors, demonstrate a good approximation to the Amur region data. This article also compares the forecasts of agricultural production on inertial and innovative scenario for the Amur region, and provides an estimation of innovation potential growth of the agricultural branches

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Polythematic Online Scientific Journal of Kuban State Agrarian University

ISSN : 1990-4665