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Evaluation of water resources in the San Diego basin in the face of climate change scenarios  [2019]

Granda, Guillermo Hervis Marrero, Luis Hiran Riverol Castilleja, Rocío del Carmen Vargas Esqueda, Gerardo Sánchez Torres et al.

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The most relevant potential impacts of climate change for the development of agriculture are focused on the change in precipitation and temperature, directly affecting the availability of water resources and the climatic demand of crops. Assessing the vulnerability of agricultural basins to climate change is important to implement adaptation and mitigation measures to face future challenges. The hydrological model of Temez, implemented in the EvalHid tool of the Decision Support System for the planning and management of water resources AQUATOOL, was calibrated based on the historical information of the average monthly flows in the San Diego River and combined with models of climate change and scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, allowed to assess the availability of water in the San Diego basin, located in the province of Pinar del Rio, western Cuba. For the scenarios of emissions of gases of effect RCP 4.5 and 8.5 W / m2, reductions were obtained in the monthly average volumes of the order of -6 to -21%, in comparison with the historical average values; without that the increase that is projected in the average monthly volumes is significant enough to compensate the projected deficits. It is estimated that the greatest impact in rice planting areas, due to low water availability occurs at the end of the century (period 2075-2099), for the scenario of RCP emissions 8.5 W / m2, the greatest impact reaching 1668 hectares of rice, a value that represents 38
% of the areas available in the basin for planting rice.

From the journal

Revista Ingeniería Agrícola

ISSN : 2227-8761