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The National Agricultural Library is one of four national libraries of the United States, with locations in Beltsville, Maryland and Washington, D.C. It houses one of the world's largest and most accessible agricultural information collections and serves as the nexus for a national network of state land-grant and U.S. Department of Agriculture field libraries. In fiscal year 2011 (Oct 2010 through Sept 2011) NAL delivered more than 100 million direct customer service transactions.

Journal Article

Journal article

Monte Carlo simulation of the shelf life of pasteurized milk as affected by temperature and initial concentration of spoilage organisms  [2003]

Schaffner, Donald W.; McEntire, Jennifer; Duffy, Siobain; Montville, Rebecca; et al.

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Predictive microbiology and quantitative microbial risk assessment are rapidly developing disciplines that use mathematical models to quantitatively estimate the presence and growth of microbes in food products. This report explains how these techniques were used in troubleshooting a milk spoilage problem. The central objective of this article is to demonstrate the concept and value of Monte Carlo simulation in a simple manner, such as could be adapted by interested food processors and used as a guide for their own studies. Generation times, initial concentrations of spoilage organisms found in milk, and storage temperature data were fit to probability distribution functions. Monte Carlo simulation results indicate that slight decreases (of 2.1 °C) in average storage temperatures significantly increased the simulated shelf life of pasteurized milk (more than 50% less psychrotrophic spoilage by 14 days), especially in those simulation samples contaminated with mesophilic bacteria (almost 75% less spoilage). When the average storage temperature was reduced by 2.1 °C, storage temperature variability by 1°C, and average initial microbial contamination levels by 0.5 Log10 CFU/ml, this significantly lengthened shelf life when either mesophilic (1 % spoilage by 14 days) or psychrotrophic (9% spoiled by 14 days) microbes were present. Microbial simulation tools used primarily for food safety risk assessment can also be used to predict microbial spoilage and may be
of value to the food industry.

From the journal

Food protection trends

ISSN : 1541-9576