Written Paper

Temporal and spatial analysis of hand, foot, and mouth disease in relation to climate factors: A study in the Mekong Delta region, Vietnam  [2017]

Nguyen, Huong Xuan Cordia Chu Cuong Manh Do Dung Phung et al.

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This study examined the temporal and spatial patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) in the Mekong Delta region in Vietnam. A time-series analysis was used to examine the temporal patterns of HFMD in relation to climate factors while a retrospective space-time scan was used to detect the high-risk space-time clusters of this disease. A 1°C increase in average temperature was associated with 5.6% increase in HFMD rate at lag 5days (95% CI 0.3–10.9). A 1% increase in humidity had equal influence of 1.7% increases on HFMD rate at both lag 3days and 6days (95% CI 0.7–2.7 and 95% CI 0.8–2.6, respectively). An increase in 1 unit of rainfall was associated with a 0.5% increase of HFMD rate on the lag 1 and 6days (95% CI 0.2–0.9 and 95% CI 0.1–0.8, respectively). The predictive model indicated that the peak of HFMD was from October to December - the rainy season in the Mekong Delta region. Most high-risk clusters were located in areas with high population density and close to transport routes. The findings suggest that HFMD is influenced by climate factors and is likely to increase in the future due to climate change related weather events.

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Science of the total environment

ISSN : 0048-9697