Simulating the effects of GATT-UR/WTO on the Philippine economy
1997
Cororaton, C.B.
In terms of tariff change, the new GATT/WTO will not mean very much as far as the Philippine industries are concerned. The present tariff rates of almost all Philippine industries are below the initial bound rate of the GATT/WTO set in 1995. Tariff protection in the Philippines has declined considerably in the past years due to the series of tariff reduction programs embarked on by the government to liberalize the trade sector. However, the expected change in the world economy in terms of trade expansion is significant as shown in the different world growth scenarios presented in the paper. The paper presented two scenarios of the world economy. Together with the other changes, the paper simulated these to see the impact on the local economy. Based on the simulation results, the overall impact of the new GATT/WTO is positive in both scenarios. Under Scenario A, a real GDP will have an average increase of 0.7 percent. However, there will be three industries which will be affected negatively, all of which are under the agricultural sector. In terms of income distribution effects, the results are mixed. In fact, the richest income group will benefit the most, followed by the second household group. Under Scenario B, real GDP will increase at an average of 0.64 percent. Manufacturing will be the leading sector. Mining industries will be negatively affected. The effect on income distribution is progressive. The poorest income groups will benefit the most. Under this scenario, there will be industries which will register negative growth effect. These industries will come mostly from the agricultural and mining sectors
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