Spatio-temporal analysis and predictive modeling of abaca virus diseases
2001
Raymundo, A.D. | Basio, N.M. (Philippines Univ. Los Banos, College, Laguna (Philippines))
An experiment on the spread of bunchy-top in an isolated one-hectare abaca field was undertaken in Tobaco, Albay [Philippines]. Likewise, to better understand the dynamics of bunchy-top and mosaic virus diseases, computer simulation was done using STELLA software and GIS modelling. The spread of bunchy-top is quite slow. In the one-hectare field of abaca with a hill of 5 diseased abaca seedlings serving as initial focus on source of inoculum, it took almost one year before adjoining hills became infected. At the start, spread was extremely slow. As the number of infected plants, serving as additional sources of inoculum, increases, spread and intensification became faster. A STELLA model of bunchy-top, which included the dynamics of diseases linked to population dynamics of the insect vector, shows that the disease can spread faster under optimum conditions. This model can be utilized in predicting bunchy-top under varying conditions. A GIS predictive model of both the bunchy-top and mosaic provided information on disease increase and spread based on previous data. The rates of increase and spread of the diseases derived from the spatio-temporal analysis and from the computer simulation can be used in devising strategies for eradication as regards spread of operation, location of eradication sites, and deployment of personnel
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]الكلمات المفتاحية الخاصة بالمكنز الزراعي (أجروفوك)
المعلومات البيبليوغرافية
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