Evaluation of the risk to natural vegetation from climate change in Japan
2005
Ishigami, Y.(Chiba Univ., Matsudo (Japan). Faculty of Horticulture)) | Shimizu, Y. | Omasa, K.
Recently, impacts of climate change on ecosystems have been of concern. In this study, the differences between the present type of natural vegetation distribution, which is derived from the national survey on the natural environment and the potential type of natural vegetation distribution estimated by a simulation model using the normals were analyzed to evaluate the risk to vegetation from climate change. The results of the analysis showed that natural vegetation and potential natural vegetation were different in some areas. Furthermore, the results of the analysis with projected potential natural vegetation using GCM data showed that the areas where natural vegetation and potential natural vegetation were different expanded. In such areas, the possibility that climate conditions will not be able to support present natural vegetation was high. It is suggested that the areas with a high risk will expand.
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