[Cyclic structure of many-year changes in the soil water rate and its climatic transformation on the territory of Belarus]
2007
Vikhrov, V.I.,Belarus State Academy of Agriculture, Gorki (Belarus)
Significant recurrence, various enough on duration and territorial distribution is peculiar to long-term fluctuations of parameters of soil water regime. Prevailing on territory of Belarus during with 1945 for 1976 the 4-years cycle of fluctuations of majority of soil-water regime was transformed to more high-frequency recurrence. It is possible to explain it the increase in frequency of extreme weather conditions established recently as one of attributes of modern change of a climate. In an extreme southwest of Belarus for last three decades it was generated the 10-11 years he cycle of fluctuations connected obviously with a close on duration cycle of solar activity. As a whole the long-term fluctuations of soil water regime are characterized by absence interrow communications of the next years that proves to be true presence of insignificant first factor of autocorrelation of investigated rows (r1) and speaks prevalence of high-frequency recurrence. In this connection the given time rows do not concern to a class marc circuits. Exceptions are single rows of soil water regime on Brest meteorological station Brest where r1 is significant. It is due to presence here low-frequency 11-years recurrence and significant long-term trend. The above-stated properties of cyclic structure of long-term rows of soil water regime should be considered at a substantiation of schemes and methods of their likelihood-determined forecasts. The executed calculations have shown, that the account of the revealed cyclic trends allows to reduce a dispersion of initial rows of parameters of soil water regime up to 35-50%
اظهر المزيد [+] اقل [-]الكلمات المفتاحية الخاصة بالمكنز الزراعي (أجروفوك)
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تم تزويد هذا السجل من قبل National Academy of Sciences of Belarus