A simulation model for predicting the development stage and harvesting date of standard cut chrysanthemum in greenhouse

صينى. 建立一个可以预测温室标准切花菊现蕾和收获期的模拟模型，为温室切花菊温光调控提供决策支持。根据菊花（Chrysanthemum morifolium Ramat.）发育对光温反应的特性，提出了生理辐热积（physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR，PTEP）的概念，通过不同扦插期和不同品种的试验，建立了以生理辐热积（PTEP）为尺度的温室标准切花菊发育模型，并用独立的试验数据对模型进行了检验。模型对从扦插到定植、短日处理、现蕾和收获期的模拟预测值与实测值的符合度较好，预测值与实测值间1:1线的回归估计标准误差RMSE分别为2.3、2.9、1.2和3.2 d，预测精度明显高于以有效积温为尺度的发育模型（RMSE分别为3.0、12.5、12.5和15.6 d）。本研究建立的模型能较准确地预测标准切花菊各个发育阶段出现的时间与收获期，可以为中国温室标准切花菊周年生产的光温调控提供理论依据和决策支持。

إنجليزي. In order to optimize the climate control for standard cut chrysanthemum production in greenhouse, a simulation model for predicting standard, cut chrysanthemum development and harvesting date was developed. Based on the effects of photo-thermal conditions on chrysanthemum development, the concept of physiological product of thermal effectiveness and PAR (PTEP) and its calculation method were proposed and used to predict cut chrysanthemum development stages. Experiments with different varieties and cutting dates were carried out in greenhouses to collect data to develop and to validate the model. The results show that the simulated results agree well with the observed ones. Based on the 1:1 line, the root mean squared error (RMSE) from cutting to planting, beginning of the short-day length treatment, bud break and harvesting date were, respectively, 2.3, 2.9, 1.2 and 3.2 days. The prediction accuracy of the model developed in this study is significantly higher than that of the growth degree days (GDD) base model (RMSE is 3.0, 12.5, 12.5 and 15.6 days, respectively, from cutting to planting, beginning of the short-day length treatment, bud break and harvesting date). It can be concluded that the model developed in this study can give satisfactory prediction of standard cut chrysanthemum development and harvesting date and can be used for decision making for the optimization of the climate control for standard cut chrysanthemum production in greenhouse.