Using of AnyLogic and ExtendSim in modelling of biofuel logistic systems
2008
Dukulis, I., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia)
Rising oil prices, national security concerns, the desire to increase farm incomes, and a host of new and improved technologies are propelling the European Union to set the directive for the year 2010 – each member state should achieve at least 5.75% biofuel usage of all used transport fuel. The report on the progress made in the use of renewable fuels shows that the average Member State of the EU has achieved only 52% of its target, and biofuels’ share in 2010 will not raise much above 4%. The prices of different biofuels are still not able to compete with oil based fuel prices. One of the possible ways how to solve this problem is to optimize biofuel supply chains using different methods of systems engineering. The aims of this investigation were finding out appropriate simulation tools for biofuel supply chain modelling, development of rapeseed oil supply chains for different production types, and modelling the developed supply chains. As the result of software survey, two packages were chosen – AnyLogic and ExtendSim Suite. Modelling studies showed that rapeseed oil supply chain is very sensitive, because changing just single parameters in a short scale, the actual cost price of 1 litre of oil changes considerably. Comparing the fossil diesel fuel prices with rape oil actual cost from modelling studies, the use of oil as a fuel for farm machinery seems to be profitable. Analysis of costs distribution shows that the greatest part is composed by rapeseed growing expenses.
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