Development Model for Estimating Critical Path Probability of Element Path in PERT
2010
Youn, D.N., Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Kim, T.G., Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Han, Y.C., Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea | Lee, J.J., Seoul National University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
The PERT is one form of probabilistic network and can have many critical paths in the concept of each work has dispersed complete time. Here we propose two operators to estimate the probabilistic complete time about serial and parallel connections, and in each junction node, probability of critical path is estimated by new operator. Then we compare the estimated results with robability of critical path with deterministic CPM and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). Our results show that all paths in PERT can be critical path, and proposed operators are efficient and accurate probabilistic calculators compare MCS result.
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