China quarterly update, June 2010
Bown, Chad P.; Cowley, Meredith A.;
China's economy has continued to grow robustly, with some softening recently. So far in 2010, the slowdown in government-led investment (GLI) after last year's massive stimulus has partly been offset by strong real estate investment. Household consumption growth has held up well, reflecting a favorable labor market. Despite a rapid recovery of export volumes since the trough in early 2009, China's trade surplus has declined further due to surging import volumes and declining terms of trade. Inflation has picked up somewhat, but core inflation remains low. However, soaring property prices triggered tough property-specific measures. Leading indicators and industrial production data suggest some deceleration to a still rapid rate of growth. Despite concerns about fiscal risks in some high income countries, the global growth outlook remains favorable, in large part because of the strength in emerging markets. Nonetheless, risks around the global forecast are large. In China, after a rapid start to 2010, growth is likely to ease, mainly because of a partial normalization of the macro policy stance and the property measures. The external surplus should decline somewhat further this year. Inflation is likely to remain contained this year by the absence of price pressures globally while a wage-price spiral is not likely.
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