The 2008/09 food price and food security situation in Eastern and Southern Africa: Implications for immediate and longer run responses

This report examines the impact of recent world food price changes on domestic maize and fertilizer prices in the Eastern and Southern African region. It assesses the possible changes in cropping patterns, national food production, and consumers&rsquo; access to food in light of these price movements. The report also gives some policy and program implications for consideration by governments, donors, and the private sector to increase food security in the region. <br /><br />The report highlights the following major findings, which include:<br /> when examined in nominal US dollars and nominal local currency units, maize prices in most of Eastern and Southern Africa have reached an all time high in 2008 there is some evidence of a potential food crisis emerging in Zambia and possibly Malawi as a result of potential physical shortages, which are likely to send maize prices sharply higher over the coming months opportunities to relieve maize deficits in the region and partially stabilize prices are being hindered by barriers to regional trade events in 2007 and 2008 are underscoring the crucial importance of timely crop production and market information systems high fertilizer prices in 2008 are likely to contribute to high food prices in 2009 in the region, even if world food prices continue to decline.The report recommends that governments and the donor agencies should:<br /> create a forum for regular consultation and coordination between the private and public sectors to manage the potential need for maize imports and exports invest in an improved crop production forecasting system to serve as a foundation for improved consultation and coordination between the public and private sectors eliminate maize export bans, import tariff rates, and licensing requirements for trade with the region focus government budgets on cost-reducing public investments to support the development of input and output markets and smallholder farm productivity encourage rigorous analysis of the likely impacts of subsidized production of food-based biofuels by relatively rich countries.