Impact of land tenure security on farm household land use change.. A case study of Changshu City,Fengxian District, Jiangdu City and Funan County | 土地产权稳定性对农户土地利用变化的影响――以常熟市、奉贤区、江都市和阜南县为例

صينى. 分析土地产权稳定性对农户土地利用变化的影响。以经济发展水平存在显著差异的常熟市、奉贤区、江都市和阜南县为例，利用807份农户调查问卷，选取区域差异、农户家庭区位、户主基本状况、农户家庭特征、土地资源禀赋、土地产权稳定性等因素，采用二元Logit模型，构建农户土地利用变化影响模型。结果表明：1）地区、户主年龄、土地经营面积对农户土地利用变化影响显著；2）土地利用变化可能性随经济发展水平递增，经济相对发达的奉贤区是经济发展相对落后阜南县的5．5倍；3）户主年龄增加会减小农户土地利用变化可能性，年龄每增加1岁，土地利用变化发生率减少3．1％；4）农户土地利用变化可能性随农户土地经营面积的增大而减小，经营面积每增加1hm2，土地利用变化发生率减少68．7％；5）土地产权稳定性对土地利用变化有一定影响，土地产权越不稳定，土地利用变化可能性越大。

إنجليزي. The purpose of this study is to analyze the influence of land tenure security on farm household land use change. Taking Changshu City, Fengxian District,Jiangdu City and Funan County as examples of significantly different levels of economic development, using 807 valid questionnaires of farm household surveys, and selecting factors of regional difference, family location, basic information of the farm householder,family features of the farm household,land resources endowment and land tenure security, this paper constructed the farm household land use change impact model basing on Binary Logit Model. The results showed that= First, district, the age of farm householder and the area of land management had significant effect on farm householcls land use change~Second,the odds of land use change increased with the economic development level increase and the odds of relatively economically developed Fengxian District was 5.5 times of relatively undeveloped Funan County; Third, the possibility of farm household land use change would decrease with the increase of the farm householder＇s age, which decreased 3.1% with every 1 year increase of age; Fourth,the possibility of farm household land use change increased with the decrease of land management area and the incidence decreased 68.7% with an increase of 1 hectare of land management area; Fifth, land tenure security had some influence on land use change and the more unstable land tenure was, the greater likelihood of land use change would be.