Probabilism, the way out for performance based building regulations

Performance based regulations emerge increasingly. The actual situation in the Netherlands is described. We observe from our consultancy experience permanent obstruction of innovation and prescription of well known solutions because of a lack of understanding by local authorities. Bureaucracy and disasters force opponents and politicians to blame the complicated and scientific nature of modern democratic performance regulations. Political emphasis on reduction of the body of (technical) regulations however is counterproductive. Expert opinion is that a decrease of regulatory-burden is possible by improving regulatory methodology. Meanwhile, probabilistic thinking is developing. We cannot live nor build without the risk of failure. The acceptance level of risk should be a political decision. Knowledge and understanding of building regulations should increase and be fostered by improving education. Eurocodes show quite some advance; “tight rope” calculations can be made. Application of probabilistic methods in other areas than structural design is still in its infancy or research stage. New regulations of emissions to ground, air and water have to be developed by reason of a sustainable world, but may not hinder re-use of building products. The content of a building product is not important, but the risk that dangerous emissions will damage the environment. By applying performance based principles, using probabilistic methods adequately, we could really advance. Management by incident by issuing new regulations based on one accident is unholy. When disaster strikes, politicians and the regulators usually create a new host of rules to prevent recurrence. Acceptance of effects based probabilistic judgement should be the issue. Poor regulations, conflicts in practice, huge administrative burden and quite some destruction of capital are observed in building practise. Based on our experience we see blockades for the application of innovative technical and organisational solutions, and the use of unsatisfactory solutions that only can be put to level only at great cost. Owner/user orientation ensures acceptance and proper application. Research and education should aim at tools to manage probabilistics in the building industry and assessment procedures.