Analysis of the armyworm outbreak in 2012 and suggestions of monitoring and forecasting | 2012年黏虫暴发特点分析与监测预警建议

صينى. 2012年三代黏虫在东北、华北、西南部分地区暴发，对间歇性暴发的迁飞性害虫监测工作敲响了警钟。本文分析了2012年三代黏虫具有发生面积大、范围广、区域北扩，高密度区域呈带状分布，隐蔽为害造成集中损失，玉米受害最重等暴发为害特点；指出了当前监测预警工作中存在难以掌握迁飞路径，监测范围大、重点多，系统调查时间长、频度高、专业性强，评价标准尚未统一等难点问题，这正是导致部分地区失查失治的客观原因。提出开展跨体系多部门协同科研攻关、制定全国评价标准、继承使用多种监测手段、健全基层监测网络和提高测报专业技能等建议，对进一步做好黏虫监测预警工作具有重要意义。

إنجليزي. A sudden outbreak of the 3rd-generation larvae of the armyworm Mythimna separata (Walker) occurred in North China, the Northeast and Southwest of China in 2012. This is a warning for monitoring and fore-casting of the migratory pests which intermittently break out. The outbreak of the armyworm was characterized by vast occurrence range, northbound dispersal, band-like distribution in high-density regions, concentrated losses caused by covert endangerment, and severe damage to corn. There are several difficulties in monitoring and fore-casting the armyworm, including erratic migrating routes, heavy survey tasks with excessive scope, numerous sites and time-consuming, frequent and high professional investigation. These difficulties might be the objective causes for neglected management in some places. We suggest promoting monitoring and forecasting of the armyworm, including collaborative research among related systems and departments, establishment of national grading standard for occurrence degrees, practice of multiple investigation methods, enhancement of grassroots supervision net-works and elevation of staff skills.