Agricultural production and market modelling approaches
2017
Zeverte-Rivza, S., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Economics and Social Development | Nipers, A., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Economics and Social Development | Pilvere, I., Latvia Univ. of Agriculture, Jelgava (Latvia). Faculty of Economics and Social Development
Agriculture is a specific industry of the national economy that is subject to permanent economic, political, environmental and other changes. For this reason, credible and unbiased projections of its development are necessary, which take into account various conditions, including climate change. Agricultural modelling is widely used to assess and simulate the development of the agricultural industry; it has two key purposes: to contribute to the scientific understanding of a particular system and to analyse and project the effects of policies made and support instruments applied. The scientific literature provides a lot of information on modelling and simulation of dynamic systems. Therefore, the overall aim of the present research is to examine the key agricultural production and market forecasting models employed in the EU. To achieve the aim, the following specific research tasks are defined: 1) to analyse the theoretical aspects of simulation modelling; 2) to examine the key agricultural simulation models employed in the EU, including Latvia. The research has found that in the European Union (EU) diverse models by the approach and scope are employed for developing outlook of agriculture or its individual sectors. However, the most widely-used global and EU level models not always meet all the needs to accurately simulate the agricultural changes in the Member States level. For these reasons, in 2015 and 2016 two agriculture simulation models were developed in Latvia in order to project the potential development of agriculture and the key challenges related to climate change policies more accurately.
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