Analysis and forecasting of the sucrose content of sugarcane crops during the harvest period in Reunion Island
2007
Martiné, Jean-François
IN RÉUNION Island, in a stable monovarietal sugarcane cropping system, sucrose content patterns through the harvest season differ between years and cropping areas. The sugar industry generally considers that this variability is due to climatic differences, but the impacts have not been quantified. A quantitative explanation of this variability should facilitate the forecasting of sucrose content patterns and highlight opportunities for improvement. We thus used a growth model to calculate bioclimatic indices. This tool, associated with optimisation procedures, can be used to determine bioclimatic indices that would clearly explain the variability in sucrose content in different sugarcane-growing areas. These indices are calculated on the basis of climatic (temperature, radiation, rainfall, potential evapotranspiration) and plant (age, water status) factors. The indices combining temperature, radiation and water deficiencies ratios, from the time when millable stalks are formed, best explain variations in sucrose content during the harvest season. Other periods taken into account are not as critical. Sucrose content forecasting models have been validated on the basis of the results achieved in different years. Just before harvest season, these models can predict the sucrose content pattern at the start of the forthcoming harvest season and give indications to millers and growers for harvest schedules. (Résumé d'auteur)
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