Regional demographic trends in accordance with the new model of territorial division in Latvia and future dynamics in statistical regions of the Baltic States
2020
Krumins, J., University of Latvia, Riga (Latvia) | Berzins, A., University of Latvia, Riga (Latvia) | Dahs, A., University of Latvia, Riga (Latvia)
Considering the proposed new administrative territorial reform in Latvia, regional demographic implications of such municipal restructuring should be evaluated and placed in line with the advancements of the two neighbouring Baltic countries. This study aims to develop an indicative demographic outline of Latvian municipalities proposed under the 39-municipality model and identify main regional demographic peculiarities in Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia for the next two decades. Literature review, statistical and geospatial methods, as well as recalculation, estimation and forecasting of the regional demographic data are used as research tools within this study. Study results indicate that despite expected structural changes proposed by the reform, Latvia could expect continuation of the two-speed demographic development pattern and core-periphery divide in regional development. However, judging upon experience in regional demographic developments of the two neighbouring countries, the new structure may prove to be more robust and manageable, linking rural municipalities and their respective regional development centres under “one roof”, thus allowing for easier control and implementation of the corrective policy measures.
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