Strictly protected species of hoverflies (Diptera: Syrphidae) in Serbia in the face of climate change
2018
Milicic, Marija (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3154-660X) | Jankovic, Marina (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2136-815X) | Milic, Dubravka (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8828-1489) | Radenkovic, Snezana (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7805-9614) | Vujic, Ante (https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8819-8079)
Climate change is happening. Due to a spectrum of possible conse- quences, numerous studies examine the effects of global warming on species distribution. This study examines the effects of changing climate on distribution of selected strictly protected species of hoverflies in Serbia, by using species distribution modelling. Ten species were included in the analysis. Three species were predicted to lose a part of their range across time, while for seven species the range expansion was predicted. Both in the present time and in the future, mountainous regions have the highest species richness, such as Golija, Kopaonik, and Prokletije in the western Serbia, and mountains Stara Planina, Besna Kobi- la, Suva Planina, and Dukat in the southeastern part of the country. However, beside climate change, there are several other factors that might influence the distribution of strictly pro- tected hoverflies in Serbia, such as intensive land use and degradation of habitats. Addition- ally, global warming also affects flowering plants that syrphids are dependent on, which could present another obstacle to their future range expansions. These results can contribute to planning future steps for the conservation of strictly protected hoverfly species.
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