Occurrence of mycotoxins, weather conditions and public health: is there any relation?

As a result of climate change, risk for mycotoxin contamination of crops skyrocketed in Serbia in the last decade. Occurrence of mycotoxins in food presents great concern for human health. The aim of this survey was to investigate the association between occurrence of selected mycotoxins in corn grains from Serbian fields, as available in published literature, and weather conditions, for the period 2010-2016. Association was evaluated by linear regression, using mean concentration of deoxynivalenol (DON) and zearelenon (ZEA) in corn grains, as well as percent of samples contaminated with DON/ZEA, and annual agrometeorological data (deviation of temperature from long-term period (1981-2010), number of days with temperatures higher than 20°C, 30°C, and 35°C, number of rainy days and precipitation amount), for period from April to September, taken from Hydrometeorology Service of Serbia. During 2010-2016 (with exemption of 2011), percent of corn samples contaminated with DON was significantly negatively associated with deviation of temperature from long-term period (R2=0,59; p<0,05), number of days with temperatures higher than 20°C (R2=0,84; p<0,01), 30°C (R2=0,67; p<0,05) and 35°C (R2=0,59; p<0,05), and significantly positively associated with number of rainy days (R2=0,87; p<0,01) and precipitation amount (R2=0,81; p<0,01). Similar results were obtained when mean concentration of DON in corn was considered, although there was no association with number of days with temperature higher than 20°C and 35°C (p>0,05). During 2012-2016 period, percent of corn contaminated with ZEA was significantly negatively associated with number of days with temperature higher than 20°C (R2=0,82; p<0,05) and significantly positively associated with number of rainy days (R2=0,96; p<0,01) and precipitation amount (R2=0,97; p<0,01). In conclusion, occurrence of DON and ZEA in corn grains harvested in Serbia showed considerable association with weather conditions. It is advisable to conduct risk assessment in terms of negative effects of mycotoxins on human health.