Funkcionalni karakteri i modelovanje distribucije vrsta osolikih muva (Diptera: Syrphidae) jugoistočne Evrope u proceni rizika od izumiranja / Functional traits and species distribution modelling of hoverflies (Diptera:Syrphidae) in Southeast Europe in as

In this paper, the division of 572 species of hoverflies registered in Southeast Europe into functional groups was conducted, based on their functional traits. For 44 selected endemic and native non-endemic species that have their climatic niches limited in the study area, maps of current and future potential distributions were created (for the periods, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080) using MAXENT algorithm. Based on the obtained maps, changes in potential area of occupancy were calculated, in order to estimate the effect of climate change on the distribution of hoverfly species. Species that will be most affected by climate change were detected, as well as the areas with the greatest potential species richness in the future and areas predicted to lose part of the diversity of hoverflies. It is shown that species with limited distribution in the future will not experience a greater reduction of its area in relation to the widespread species. Also, based on the current maps of potential distribution and assessed rarity of species, priority areas important for the survival of hoverflies in Southeast Europe were established. By using linear regression and linear mixed effect models, the interdependence between functional traits and the estimated changes in the range size was tested. Traits affecting the changes in range size of hoverflies were determined. The established concept can be used for the detection of species that are not yet considered endangered, but because of their biological and ecological traits have the potential to become threatened, and therefore deserve the attention of conservationists. This results can largely be used to create a systematic conservation plan for the preservation of hoverflies in Southeast Europe.