Factors Affecting Emission Intensity of Pollutants Emitted from Agricultural Production

Energy products are the main sources of emissions for most of the pollutants in Iran. However, for some pollutants like Methane (CH4) and Nitrous Oxide (N2O), the production process, including the agricultural production process, plays a significant role. The aims of this study were to analysis the emissions intensity of the selected pollutants and to introduce the determinants in Iranian agricultural sector. The emission intensity in the agricultural sector was decomposed into its components using decomposition analysis. Then, the regression analysis was applied to investigate the emission intensity determinants. The selected pollutants are Carbon Dioxide (CO2), CH4, and N2O emitted from agricultural production process. The applied data cover 1973-2016. The findings showed that CH4 emission intensity has been decreasing over the study horizon by 3.9% annually. For N2O, the corresponding value was 2.6%. Based on the results, output level in agricultural sectors is an important driving factor in the emission intensity. It was found that 1% increase in livestock output level is expected to increase CH4 emission intensity by 0.9% while it will dampen the N2O emissions intensity by more than 3.3%. By contrast, the same percentage of increase in the output level of agronomy and horticultural subsector will induce an increase of 3.3% in N2O emission intensity and will reduce the CH4 emission intensity more than 0.9%. Macroeconomic variables including urbanization and trade openness failed to affect the agricultural emission intensity significantly. The emission intensity of all pollutants, measured in CO2 equivalent, has been decreasing over the study period by 3.5% annually. It was also found that, in terms of aggregated emission, output expansion in livestock and forestry sectors may induce higher emission intensity, while agronomy and horticultural output expansion can reduce the emissions intensity. Given that the output level plays a significant role in emission intensity while the macroeconomic variables have nothing to do with emission intensity, the measures taken to reduce the emission intensity in the agricultural sector should be sector-specific. Moreover, the measures should focus on each subsector individually.