Trends Estimation in Annual Numbers of Merino Sheep and Wool Production in South Africa, From 1980 To 2017

The economic important value of wool in South Africa is influenced by many characteristics that meet processor capacities and consumers’ preference. The study was conducted to characterize the trends of annual Merino sheep numbers, wool sales and wool auction price in South Africa, from 1980 to 2017. The data from year 1980 to 2017 was retrieved from the abstract of agricultural statistics which was published by the Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development (DLRRD) in 2020 was used. Trends were analysed using the differences and percentage change between numbers of years in each independent variable (annual number of Merino sheep, wool sales and wool auction price). The findings indicated that there was a trend in annual number of Merino sheep, wool sales and wool auction prices. In annual numbers of Merino sheep, the highest decrease was observed from 1992 to 1993 (-1878) by 11.2 percent (%) while the huge increase was observed from 1999 to 2000 (+1177) by 10.6%. In wool sales, the findings showed that there was an increase (+5.4) from 1980 to 1982 with 7.7% while there was a decrease (-4.7) from 1982 to 1983 by 6.2%. In wool auction price, the highest increase was observed from 1986 to 1987 (+250903) by 77.2%. Regression findings indicated that all the predicted regression models were statistically significant at P < 0.01. However, the results suggest that quadratic (R2 = 90) was the best fit model to predict the relationship between number of years and annual Merino sheep numbers. This study suggests that there was a trend in annual numbers of Merino sheep, wool sales and wool auction prices in South Africa from 1980 and 2017. Moreover, this study might help Merino sheep farmers to recognise the trends that might be helpful in planning for annual wool productions