Degrowth by disaster or design: Convergence of crises and possible pathways in Latvia

The ongoing climate and environmental breakdown, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russian war in Ukraine are some of the key events creating a continuous convergence of crises that will likely affect most societal groups and the whole global (dis)order. Based on research within the Latvian Council of Science funded project ‘Ready for change? Sustainable management of common natural resources’, this paper explores firstly, the evidence-based impossibility of perpetual growth; secondly, the already visible signs of socio-economic hardship throughout 2020–2023; and thirdly, the possible pathways for actions in Latvia, based on long-term involvement in degrowth movement and participatory action research. We conclude that the early warnings for ‘Limits to growth’ 50 years ago have proven correct and dramatic reductions in emissions and material throughput are necessary to ensure a liveable planet for humans and broader biodiversity. The only substantial historical reductions have happened during the crises, and the decoupling of growth from environmental destruction remains a dangerous illusion. Therefore, the degrowth body of knowledge must be considered as a ‘vision for a better future’ with understanding and respect to planetary boundaries, social equity and other limits. Unfortunately, the lessons from crises indicate that corporate and political elites are afraid to reorganize the growth hegemony-driven economic and political systems. Still, the environmental breakdown has not yet provided such a sense of urgency that COVID-19 did, despite all warnings. The possible pathways in Latvia are not unique in this sense as our research confirms such a lack of sense of urgency and prioritisation of economic aims above environmental/existential, immediate above the more distant. There are aspects of valuable societal and environmental resilience in Latvia that are likely to be useful in adaptation to crises, but growth-based environmental destruction is generally not understood even among many environmentally active people. The strategic vision for alternative development strategies is very limited in Latvia. The high risk of degrowth by disaster remains.