Comparative techno-economic analysis of advanced biofuels, biochemicals, and hydrocarbon chemicals via the fast pyrolysis platform
2016
Hu, Wenhao | Dang, Qi | Rover, Marjorie | Brown, Robert C. | Wright, Mark M.
This study evaluates the techno-economic feasibility of three product portfolios from a biomass fast pyrolysis biorefinery: biofuel, biochemicals, and hydrocarbon chemicals. The biorefinery design is based on the fast pyrolysis and five-stage fractionation system developed by Iowa State University. It can produce drop-in transportation fuels (biofuel scenario); infrastructure materials such as bioasphalt and bio-cement, and dextrose (biochemicals scenario); and hydrocarbon aromatics and olefins (hydrocarbon chemicals scenario). Bio-oil is fractionated into five stage-fractions and upgraded through different pathways based on the chosen portfolio. Minimum product-selling prices (MPSP) are calculated using a 30-year discounted cash flow rate of return analysis spreadsheet. Uncertainty analysis via Monte-Carlo analysis is used to determine the maximum investment cost (MIC) and the net present value (NPV) distribution. We estimate MPSPs of US$3.09/gallon for biofuels, $433.7/MT for biochemicals, and $773.5/MT for hydrocarbon chemicals. The mean MICs are $162 MM, $610 MM, and $366.24 MM, and the net present value distributions are $-243.42±268.9 MM, $503.83±429 MM, and $242.44±30.1. Biofuel, biochemical, and hydrocarbon chemical portfolios have 18%, 100%, and 100% chance that net present values are positive respectively, which indicates that producing biochemicals and hydrocarbon chemicals could be more competitive than producing biofuels alone.
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