Quantifying the supply-demand balance of ecosystem services and identifying its spatial determinants: A case study of ecosystem restoration hotspot in Southwest China

Ecosystem conservation and restoration are the primary practices for enhancing ecosystem services (ESs) and achieving sustainable development goals. However, inappropriate land use interventions and revegetation projects may lead to an imbalance between the supply and demand of ESs. This study applied the ES matrix approach and spatial panel models to quantify the supply–demand balance of ESs in the southwest karst region and to identify their spatial determinants and spillover effects. The overall patterns for landscape metrics between 1980 and 2015 remained relatively stable, while landscape fragmentation and population growth weakened the ES supply capacity but increased the demand, which caused an imbalance (i.e. the demand exceeded the supply), particularly in the surrounding areas of the urban agglomerations. Population density and individual landscape metrics were significantly associated with ES balance (p < 0.01) and were identified as the dominant spatial determinants. Additionally, the spillover effects of determinants also influenced ES balance patterns, which should be considered in integrated landscape planning and ecosystem management to coordinate collaborations from local and adjacent regions to mitigate ES imbalance. Excessive reclamation and urbanisation temporarily improved grain provision and economic profits, respectively, but caused an imbalance in ESs and threatened ecological security. Additionally, excessive conservation practices ignored economic costs and the livelihood of residents, which threatened food security and exacerbated poverty. Therefore, a balance between the contrasting targets should be maintained through the lens of ES balance to reconcile ecosystem conservation and socioeconomic development. This study provides a complete and feasible perspective to examine and optimise human interventions, with the aim of achieving win-win goals.