Seasonal Imbalances in Natural Gas Imports in Major Northeast Asian Countries: Variations, Reasons, Outlooks and Countermeasures
2015
Kong, Zhaoyang | Dong, Xiucheng | Zhou, Zhongbing
The seasonal imbalances and price premiums of natural gas imports (NGIs) seriously affect the sustainability of these imports in major Northeast Asian countries, namely, China, Japan, and South Korea. Research on NGI seasonality might provide new insights that may help solve these issues. Unfortunately, little research has been conducted on this topic. Therefore, this paper examined the seasonalities of Chinese, Japanese, and South Korean NGIs using the X-12-ARIMA model to analyze monthly and quarterly data. The results suggest that Chinese NGIs lacks identifiable monthly or quarterly seasonality, while South Korea and Japan exhibit clearly identifiable seasonality. In Japan, NGIs exceed their average levels in January, February, July, August, September, and December; that is, Japan imports more natural gas during the winter and summer. In South Korea, NGIs exceed their average levels in January, February, March and December. In other words, South Korea typically imports more natural gas during the winter. The seasonal differences in NGIs among these countries might be explained by differences in natural gas consumption characteristics, domestic natural gas production capacity, NGI capacity, price sensitivity, and means of transportation. Based on seasonal differences and their probable causes, some suggestions are provided to promote the sustainable development of NGI.
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