Impact of uncertainty on regional carbon peak paths: an analysis based on carbon emissions accounting, modeling, and driving factors

Regional carbon emission paths have an important impact on the realization of China’s carbon emission peak target. Due to the uncertainty of future development model, the change of carbon emissions will also face uncertainty, which will make achieving the peak target challenging. Taking Shandong, Henan, and Guangdong, three of China’s most populous provinces, as examples, this study analyzed the impacts of uncertainties in carbon accounting principles, driving factors, and simulation mechanism on achieving the peak target. The results show that (1) under the baseline scenario, the accounting principles based on primary energy consumption and IPCC sector consumption will make the peaking time of Guangdong be evaluated as 2018 and 2030, respectively, and the simulation based on IPCC sector accounting will advance the peaking time of Shandong by at least 5 years, while Henan will be less affected. (2) When considering the impact of the energy structure, Guangdong and Henan are estimated to peak in 2011 and 2018, while without considering the impact of the energy structure, the peak in the two provinces may be after 2035. Energy structure has no effect on the estimation of peaking time for Shandong. In addition, the k value in the ridge regression method also has no effect on the peaking time for the three provinces; it only affects the simulations of annual carbon emissions. This study also presented the carbon emission trajectory under different scenarios; from the simulation results, environmental regulation measures such as accelerating industrial structure transformation and increasing energy consumption intensity may help to achieve the peak carbon emission target as soon as possible. It also suggests that uncertainty should be included in future carbon assessments to present a more complete carbon emission trajectory.