Could China’s long-term low-carbon energy transformation achieve the double dividend effect for the economy and environment?

He, Ling; Wang, Bangpei; Xu, Wanting; Cui, Qi; Chen, Hao

Could China’s long-term low-carbon energy transformation achieve the double dividend effect for the economy and environment?

2022

He, Ling | Wang, Bangpei | Xu, Wanting | Cui, Qi | Chen, Hao

Exploring the low-carbon energy transformation pathway is vital to coordinate economic growth and environmental improvement for achieving China’s carbon peak target. Three energy-target scenarios are developed in this paper, considering the targets of energy structure, electrification rate, and carbon mitigation towards 2030 announced by the Chinese government. A dynamic multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model, CHINAGEM, is employed to examine the economic and environmental effects under different pathways of long-term low-carbon transformation. It detects that China’s energy structure would substantially transfer to the low-carbon and clean one, whereas CO₂, SO₂, and NOX emissions in 2020–2030 would vastly abate along with all three energy-target scenarios. Different pathways would produce varying positive impacts on China’s macro-economy and achieve the different extent of double dividend effects. It is highly conceivable for China to peak its carbon emission at 12.4 GtCO₂ by 2028 if it serves the comparatively more stringent low-carbon transformation pathways.

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