Recent Developments in Bayesian Estimation of Climate Sensitivity
2015
Annan, J. D.
How sensitive the climate system is to the atmospheric concentration of CO₂ is one of the most important and long-standing questions in climate science. This problem is well-suited to the Bayesian approach. Early estimates were highly uncertain, but recent research appears to show some convergence with both high and low values excluded with increasing confidence. There is, however, increasing evidence that many of these estimates ignore some significant sources of uncertainty, correctly accounting for which would probably broaden the estimates somewhat. Conversely, different lines of evidence tend to generate consistent results, and it should be possible to synthesise these so as to decrease our uncertainties.
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