The impact of neighborhood to industrial areas on health in Uzbekistan: an ecological analysis of congenital diseases, infant mortality, and lung cancer

Aripov, Timur; Blettner, Maria; Gorbunova, Irina

The impact of neighborhood to industrial areas on health in Uzbekistan: an ecological analysis of congenital diseases, infant mortality, and lung cancer

2020

Aripov, Timur | Blettner, Maria | Gorbunova, Irina

After political sovereignty, Uzbekistan’s industry is growing fast. However, no investigation was performed so far, to evaluate whether an environmental risk, associated with the industry, is also increasing. Our aim was to investigate whether the distance from factories, as a surrogate measurement for environmental exposure to community, has any influence on some health outcomes in communities of Uzbekistan. For this first investigation, we analyzed prevalence of congenital diseases, infant mortality, and incidence rates of lung cancer, as examples for diseases associated with environmental factors. As crude measurement for the association, we used correlation and regression analysis with the distance to the next factory or plant as explanatory variable. A regression analysis demonstrated an association between the three outcome variables, with the strongest negative correlation (r = − 0.48) and the highest determination power (r² = 0.23) for congenital diseases’ prevalence. For infant mortality and lung cancer incidence, descriptions and analyses demonstrated lower negative correlation of them with the distance and a lower predictive power of linear models. So, closer distance of the community to specific industrial plants can be considered an indirect factor of higher prevalence of congenital diseases in those communities. Prospective research is needed to further investigate whether the association between birth defects in a neighborhood of industrial plants is causal or due to confounding factors. A policy should consider a degree of known factors distribution in an environment and perform effective prevention of congenital diseases, in close communities.

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