Horticultural production in the future
2019
Nichols, M.
The world population is predicted to increase from the current 7 billion to 9.5 billion by the year 2050. The population of South-East Asia is expected to rise from 4.3 to 5.2 billion by 2050 and in India from 1.2 to 1.6 billion. This will put enormous pressure on resources, including land, fresh water and food. Global warming also has the potential to reduce available land areas, particularly for low lying parts of the country. More land will be required for agriculture, industries and housing thus, there will be a need for a marked intensification of crop production on the remaining land. In many countries (such as Japan and ROC (Taiwan)) the average age of farmers is over 60 years. A similar pattern is likely to occur throughout India. Who will then produce the food? Horticulture is essentially harvesting the sun. Vegetable plants do this extremely inefficiently, because for much of their life they are surrounded by bare soil. Mobile gulley systems offer a means of using natural radiation (sunlight) more efficiently. Fresh water is an essential resource in the future. Recirculating hydroponic systems under protected cultivation are some 3-4 times more water efficient than conventional irrigation. Two major fertilizers (potassium and phosphorous) are essentially non-renewable. We must also learn to use these much more efficiently also through recirculating hydroponics. It is suggested that protected cultivation and hydroponics will need to be used in order to increase productivity particularly close to the centers of consumption and that eventually (inevitably) there will be a need for “plant factories” (vertical farming).
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