Effects of climatological parameters on the outbreak spread of COVID-19 in highly affected regions of Spain

Shahzad, Khurram; Shahzad, Umer; Iqbal, Najaf; Shahzad, Farrukh; Fareed, Zeeshan

Effects of climatological parameters on the outbreak spread of COVID-19 in highly affected regions of Spain

2020

Shahzad, Khurram | Shahzad, Umer | Iqbal, Najaf | Shahzad, Farrukh | Fareed, Zeeshan

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is infecting the human population, killing people, and destroying livelihoods. This research sought to explore the associations of daily average temperature (AT) and air quality (PM₂.₅) with the daily new cases of COVID-19 in the top four regions of Spain (Castilla y Leon, Castilla-La Mancha, Catalonia, and Madrid). To this end, the authors employ Pearson correlation, Spearman correlation, and robust panel regressions to quantify the overall co-movement between temperature, air quality, and daily cases of COVID-19 from 29 February to 17 July 2020. Overall empirical results show that temperature may not be a determinant to induce COVID-19 spread in Spain, while the rising temperature may reduce the virus transmission. However, the correlation and regression findings illustrate that air quality may speed up the transmission rate of COVID-19. Our findings are contrary to the earlier studies, which show a significant impact of temperature in raising the COVID-19 spread. The conclusions of this work can serve as an input to mitigate the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Spain and reform policies accordingly.

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