Daily prediction of seasonal grapevine production in the Douro wine region based on favourable meteorological conditions
2017
Fraga, H. | Santos, J.A.
BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The cooperative wineries of the Douro demarcated region (DDR) have a major socio‐economic role within the winemaking sector. The existing network of regional wineries provides an organisational basis for the wine market of the DDR, contributing to the sustainability of the sector. Given this strategic importance, the present research aims to develop an innovative grape production model (PGP) targeted at regional wineries. METHODS AND RESULTS: For the development of the PGP model, the relationships between daily historic meteorological conditions and grape production for three wineries within the DDR (Mesão Frio, Favaios and Freixo de Espada à Cinta) were analysed. The model runs on a daily time step, comparing the thermal/hydric conditions in a given year against the average conditions in high and low production years. Results establish site‐specific linkages between favourable (unfavourable) weather conditions and high (low) grapevine production. Relatively, cool pre‐flowering temperature and relatively warm conditions during berry development tend to favour wine production. Furthermore, higher production is typically found in years with higher than average precipitation level until flowering. The correlation between PGP model outputs and grapevine production at the three wineries ranges from 0.68 ≤ r ≤ 0.84. CONCLUSIONS: Decision makers from the DDR may indeed take advantage of the information provided by the PGP model. Daily updated knowledge of potential grape production enables wineries to timely plan and optimise harvest and postharvest procedures. SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY: The PGP model may be regarded as a useful tool to implement cost‐effective winery management, thus bringing added value to stakeholders and decision makers of the Portuguese winemaking sector.
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