Simulating transport of E. coli derived from faeces of grazing livestock using the MACRO model

Coliforms such as Escherichia coli and E. coli O157 are present in faeces deposited on the ground by grazing livestock, which gives rise to environmental concerns about the consequences of their transport in soil water draining to rivers, lakes, groundwater, water supplies and bathing waters. Following a similar study in relation to slurry spreading (Soil Use and Management 2003; 19, 321-330), a two-stage approach was adopted to using the dual-porosity contaminant transport model MACROto simulate processes by which E. coli microorganisms from grazing livestock (sheep) pass through the soil to receiving waters via field drains. First, model parameter values were selected to reproduce experimental measurements showing rapid flows of the organisms by macropore flow without trapping in smaller pores. However, because of the large number of parameters and likely experimental errors, the set of values chosen, although plausible, is not necessarily unique and so any predictions should be considered provisional pending validation. Second, a series of predictive simulations was carried out to test the influence of soil and weather conditions on losses to field drains during grazing. These showed that E. coli losses were influenced almost entirely by the soil water content at the time of grazing, rising to a high level during grazing in wet conditions, but low or zero under dry conditions. In contrast, rainfall at the time of grazing had almost no consistent effect, other than large losses on the occasional days with over 20 mm of rain. Overall losses for a period of grazing were generally small during summer, but rose to a high level if grazing continued into autumn, due to the increase in soil water content. This demonstrates that there would probably be substantial reductions in the environmental risks of water pollution by E. coli and other faecal microorganisms if continuous grazing were stopped around early September and replaced by grazing on dry days only.