Project Valuation and Risk Assessment in Food Product Development: Evidence from Fuzzy Real Option Valuation

Pilvere, Irina; Silovs, Mihails; Ozolinš, Jānis; Nipers, Aleksejs; Dmitrijeva, Olga

Project Valuation and Risk Assessment in Food Product Development: Evidence from Fuzzy Real Option Valuation

2021

Pilvere, Irina | Silovs, Mihails | Ozolinš, Jānis | Nipers, Aleksejs | Dmitrijeva, Olga

To survive in today's competitive environment, companies must continuously develop and offer customers new products. To increase the probability of a successful business case of investing in the development of a new product, careful attention must be paid to risk analysis in terms of the present value of future potential income. The article considers an example of the research work of the Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies, in the framework of which a technical and technological project was developed to produce a new product, like Mediterranean anchovy, from cheaper Baltic sprats. The main goal of this work is to explore the application multi-factor sensitivity and fuzzy real option analysis to the valuation of new product development project. The multivariate analysis of the sensitivity of the financial model of the greenfield production project described in this article revealed the main risk groups, as well as their degree of influence on the assessment of the Net Present Value of the project by a potential investor. The use of Fuzzy Real Option Valuation made it possible to evaluate the project with uncertain parameters, as well as to calculate the potential upside from preliminary refinement of parameters to eliminate negative scenarios. The described approach is applicable to risk assessment of new food product development and allows investors to make a more informed decision about participation in such projects.

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