Temperature-dependent development under constant and fluctuating temperatures: comparison of linear versus nonlinear methods for modeling development of western grapeleaf skeletonizer (Lepidoptera: Zygaenidae)

Roltsch, W.J.; Mayse, M.A.; Clausen, K.

Temperature-dependent development under constant and fluctuating temperatures: comparison of linear versus nonlinear methods for modeling development of western grapeleaf skeletonizer (Lepidoptera: Zygaenidae)

1990

Roltsch, W.J. | Mayse, M.A. | Clausen, K.

Developmental rates of western grapeleaf skeletonizer, Harrisina brillians Barnes and MacDunnough, life stages were determined under constant temperatures ranging from 12.4 to 39 degrees C, and linear and nonlinear developmental rate functions were fitted to the data H. brillians development under fluctuating temperatures also was investigated, with emphasis on high-temperature regimes. Degree-day and nonlinear methods for simulating larval development were validated by comparing predicted H. brillians development with actual field observations. Assuming linear development, the lower development thresholds for egg, total larval, and pupal stages were 9.0, 8.8, and 9.2 degrees C, respectively. Linear (degree-day) predictions of larval development in the field were more accurate than predictions derived by the nonlinear method. The linear model underestimated larval development at low temperatures and overestimated development at high temperatures by as much as 8.6%. The nonlinear model consistently underestimated larval development by as much as 17.3%. We suggest that error involved in nonlinear, temperature-dependent development models may relate to the critical assumption that enzyme systems respond almost instantaneously to temperature changes.

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