Risk assessment for oil leakage under the common threat of multiple natural hazards

Qin, Guojing; Zhang, Peng; Hou, Xiangqin; Wu, Sen; Wang, Yihuan

Risk assessment for oil leakage under the common threat of multiple natural hazards

2020

Qin, Guojing | Zhang, Peng | Hou, Xiangqin | Wu, Sen | Wang, Yihuan

Petroleum industry can create enormous wealth and employment opportunities, which is one of the pillars of the national economy. The transportation conditions of petroleum products are complex and changeable. The natural disaster–induced dangerous chemical leakage may damage the ecological environment, which leads to substantial economic losses. It significantly undermines the sustainable development agenda. Therefore, assessing the possibility of leakage and the potential environmental damages becomes a primary task to decision-makers to formulate maintenance plans. This paper evaluated the risk of an oil pipeline leakage under the regional geological disasters. Specifically, risk assessment indicators system was established considering the common threat of multiple natural hazards in the region. The sensitivities of the influence factors were determined using the combined GIS and the contribution rate model. The fuzzy analysis approach was used to process the expert’s judgment to obtain a real-time disaster hazard. Meanwhile, in terms of the analysis of pipeline failure causes, the assessment system of disaster resistance ability was developed to determine the possibility of leakage. The leakage-induced environmental losses were quantified by monetary quantification. Finally, the level of environmental risk was determined using a 5 × 5 probability-currency matrix. Case results show that the risk level is medium, thereby appropriate maintenance measures need to be taken to reduce the risk. Overall, this study provides necessary help to prevent the leakage of petroleum products in transportation. Also, the environmental risk presented in the form of currency can promote non-environmental professional risk decision-makers better understand the degree of risk.

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