Crop yield responses to climate change in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain of China

Global climate change may impact grain production as atmospheric conditions and water supply change, particularly intensive cropping, such as double wheat-maize systems. The effects of climate change on grain production of a winter wheat-summer maize cropping system were investigated, corresponding to the temperature rising 2 and 5°C, precipitation increasing and decreasing by 15% and 30%, and atmospheric CO₂ enriching to 500 and 700ppmv. The study focused on two typical counties in the Huang-Huai-Hai (3H) Plain (covering most of the North China Plain), Botou in the north and Huaiyuan in the south, considering irrigated and rain-fed conditions, respectively. Climate change scenarios, derived from available ensemble outputs from general circulation models and the historical trend from 1996 to 2004, were used as atmospheric forcing to a bio-geo-physically process-based dynamic crop model, Vegetation Interface Processes (VIP). VIP simulates full coupling between photosynthesis and stomatal conductance, and other energy and water transfer processes. The projected crop yields are significantly different from the baseline yield, with the minimum, mean (±standardized deviation, SD) and maximum changes being −46%, −10.3±20.3%, and 49%, respectively. The overall yield reduction of −18.5±22.8% for a 5°C increase is significantly greater than −2.3±13.2% for a 2°C increase. The negative effect of temperature rise on crop yield is partially mitigated by CO₂ fertilization. The response of a C3 crop (wheat) to the temperature rise is significantly more sensitive to CO₂ fertilization and less negative than the response of C4 (maize), implying a challenge to the present double wheat-maize systems. Increased precipitation significantly mitigated the loss and increased the projected gain of crop yield. Conversely, decreased precipitation significantly exacerbated the loss and reduced the projected gain of crop yield. Irrigation helps to mitigate the decreased crop yield, but CO₂ enrichment blurs the role of irrigation. The crops in the wetter southern 3H Plain (Huaiyuan) are significantly more sensitive to climate change than crops in the drier north (Botou). Thus CO₂ fertilization effects might be greater under drier conditions. The study provides suggestions for climate change adaptation and sound water resources management in the 3H Plain.