Assessing the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic factors on water level variation in the Taihu Plain based on non-stationary statistical models

Wang, Yuefeng; Xu, Youpeng; Song, Song; Wang, Jie; Zhang, Junyi

Assessing the impacts of climatic and anthropogenic factors on water level variation in the Taihu Plain based on non-stationary statistical models

2020

Wang, Yuefeng | Xu, Youpeng | Song, Song | Wang, Jie | Zhang, Junyi

Water level (a vital indicator for flood warnings and water management in floodplains) has been changed notably due to climatic and anthropogenic forces; however, very little is known about the relative effects of these agents. In this study, we take the Taihu Plain as an example to investigate potential factors driving changes in water level components through quantiles from 1954 to 2014. To quantify the extent of water level component changes attributable to climate variability and human activity, several non-stationary models considering rainfall, tide, evaporation, and hydraulic regulation as covariates are established based on generalized additive models for location, scale, and shape. The results indicate that most water level components increased over time and changed abruptly around the mid-1980s. As for climatic factors, the variability of rainfall, tide and evaporation significantly affected water level variation based on most quantiles from 1954 to 2014. Among several kinds of human activities, hydraulic regulation was a key factor influencing water level based on a high correlation coefficient. Positive effects were identified from hydraulic regulation regarding the association between rainfall and water level components; these effects depend on water level quantiles and the amount of rainfall occurrence. Our study has broad implications, providing a better understanding of water level variation and regional flood management.

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