Climate variability affects water-energy-food infrastructure performance in East Africa
2021
Siderius, Christian | Kolusu, Seshagiri R. | Todd, Martin C. | Bhave, Ajay | Dougill, Andy J. | Reason, Chris J.C. | Mkwambisi, David D. | Kashaigili, Japhet J. | Pardoe, Joanna | Harou, Julien J. | Vincent, Katharine | Hart, Neil C.G. | James, Rachel | Washington, Richard | Geressu, Robel T. | Conway, Declan
The need to assess major infrastructure performance under a changing climate is widely recognized yet rarely practiced, particularly in rapidly growing African economies. Here, we consider high-stakes investments across the water, energy, and food sectors for two major river basins in a climate transition zone in Africa. We integrate detailed interpretation of observed and modeled climate-system behavior with hydrological modeling and decision-relevant performance metrics. For the Rufiji River in Tanzania, projected risks for the mid-21ˢᵗ century are similar to those of the present day, but for the Lake Malawi-Shire River, future risk exceeds that experienced during the 20ᵗʰ century. In both basins a repeat of an early-20ᵗʰ century multi-year drought would challenge the viability of proposed infrastructure. A long view, which emphasizes past and future changes in variability, set within a broader context of climate-information interpretation and decision making, is crucial for screening the risk to infrastructure.
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