ARIMA Modeling Technique in Analyzing and Forecasting Fertilizer Statistics in India
2014
Mishra, P. | Sahu, P. K. | Uday, J.P.S.
Agricultural production depends not only on climate related variables, but also on use of several factors like fertilizer, pesticide and irrigation etc. The three major elements viz. Nitrogen (N), Phosphorus (P), Potassium (K) play key role in different stages of crops growth. Present study related to production and consumption quantity of nitrogen and phosphorus while only consumption data of potashic fertilizers in India since 1961 to 2002 using ARIMA modeling. In study, ARIMA (1, 1, 1) model was best suited for estimation of nitrogen production data. From the forecast values obtained the developed model, it can be said that forecasted production will increases to some extent in future i.e. In 2002–03 production of nitrogen was 11000000 tones up to the year 2014–2015 it will be 12736123 tones. The result shows Analysis of recent trend indicates that there is a decreasing trend in use of potashic fertilizer also and as a result, consumption of 1420617 tonnes of this fertilizer is forecasted during the year 2015.
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