The potential of a novel support vector machine trained with modified mayfly optimization algorithm for streamflow prediction

Adnan, Rana Muhammad; Kisi, Ozgur; Mostafa, Reham R.; Ahmed, Ali Najah; El-Shafie, Ahmed

The potential of a novel support vector machine trained with modified mayfly optimization algorithm for streamflow prediction

2022

Adnan, Rana Muhammad | Kisi, Ozgur | Mostafa, Reham R. | Ahmed, Ali Najah | El-Shafie, Ahmed

This paper focuses on the development of a robust accurate streamflow prediction model by balancing the abilities of exploitation and exploration to find the best parameters of a machine learning model. To do so, the simulated annealing (SA) algorithm is integrated with the mayfly optimization algorithm (MOA) as SAMOA to determine the optimal hyper-parameters of support vector regression (SVR) to overcome the exploration weakness of the MOA method. The proposed method is compared with the classical SVR and hybrid SVR-MOA. To examine the accuracy of the selected methods, monthly hydroclimatic data from Jhelum River Basin is used to predict the monthly streamflow on the basis of RMSE, MAE, NSE, and R² indices. Test results show that the SVR-SAMOA outperformed the SVR-MOA and SVR models. SVR-SAMOA reduced the prediction errors of the SVR-MOA and SVR models by decreasing the RMSE and the MSE from 21.4% to 14.7% and from 21.7% to 15.1%, respectively, in the test stage.

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