What is above average air temperature!?
2022
Bonacci, Ognjen
In many media, especially in prime-time television shows, we often hear that the temperature is or will be higher than average or above average. It is seldom said which average it is, namely which period this comparison refers to. It is also rare to hear how much this above-average temperature is higher than one average. The question is what the climate average or climate normal is? The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) during the twentieth century defined a period of 30 years as the standard reference for calculating climate normal. The 30-year period, known as the climatological standard normal, serves as a benchmark against which current observations can be compared to the previous one. The last climatological standard normal period 1981–2010 is still in use while a new one is in preparation for a 30-year period that will cover the period from 1991 to 2020. It is expected that this change will be in use from the beginning of 2022. In this paper, based on the temperature change data obtained at the meteorological stations Split Marjan and Zagreb Grič, the differences in the conclusions about the last air temperature changes in the period of the last 10 years (2011–2020) are studied. The following four different 30-year climate normal periods are analysed: (1) 1961–1990; (2) 1971–2000; (3) 1981–2010; (4) 1991–2020. The analyses performed in this paper indicate the necessity of constant changing of the 30-year climate normal period used to estimate variations in recent air temperatures. Given the sudden rise in air temperature over the last 30 years, the period from 1991 to 2020 should be currently used for comparison and assessment of the most recent temperatures and other climatic parameters.
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