Possible increase of human Taenia saginata infections through import of beef to Norway from a high prevalence area
1999
Skjerve, E.
A Monte Carlo risk assessment model was developed to estimate the public health risk of importing prime cuts of beef infested with Taenia saginata to Norway from an endemic area in southern Africa. The model predicted that 21 (lower 5% = 1, upper 95% = 56) viable cysts would be present in domestic prime cuts during 1996 and 1997, with 8 (0 to 21) of them being ingested without sufficient heat treatment to kill the parasite. These cysts were expected to cause 2 (0 to 7) human infections. Corresponding figures for the imported prime cuts were 1,260 (99 to 2,900) viable cysts, 462 (37 to 1,065) ingested without sufficient heat treatment, causing 132 (8 to 361) human infections. The model was sensitive to the uncertainties related to the estimates of probabilities of cysts being viable and the probability of their causing infection in humans. The public health impact from consuming imported beef is not large, but the model illustrates how imported cuts may change the epidemiological pattern of a disease even when the import constitutes only 3% of the prime cuts consumed.
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