Water-land resource carrying capacity in China: Changing trends, main driving forces, and implications

Due to significant resource and environmental pressures resulting from the rapidly developing economy and fast-growing population in recent decades in China, an evaluation of the trends of the water-land resource carrying capacity (W-LRCC) is necessary to promote coordinated and sustainable development. This study proposed a framework for evaluating the trends of the W-LRCC from the perspectives of the water-land resource supporting force (W-LRSF) and pressure (W-LRP) via a decoupling model combined with the ecological footprint concept and an index system. The overall and annual trends of W-LRCC in China from 2006 to 2017 at the provincial level were evaluated, and the main driving forces of the trends were analyzed. The results show that the overall change in the W-LRCC shows a declining trend, and most of the provinces exhibit expansive negative decoupling. Provinces with an increasing W-LRCC trend are mainly located in the middle and downstream portions of the Yangtze River basin. Decreases in the Completed Investment in Solid Waste Treatment Projects/Gross Domestic Product (CISWTP/GDP) and the Completed Investment in Wastewater Treatment Projects/Gross Domestic Product (CIWTP/GDP) have the largest contributions to the decrease in W-LRSF. In contrast, increases in the Domestic Waste Sanitary Landfill Volume/Land Area (DWSL/LA) and Ecological Water Compensation/Total Water Consumption (EWC/TWC) contribute the most to an increase in the W-LRP in most provinces. These are the main driving forces of the overall decline in the W-LRCC in China. Policies that could improve the W-LRCC at the provincial level in China include the systematic implementation of appropriate land resource management measures, soil pollution prevention, promoting effective resource and technology exchanges among the provinces, increasing the investment in wastewater treatment projects, and implementing the most stringent water management system. This study has the potential to deepen our understanding of the W-LRCC trend and its spatial pattern and regional differences in China and provide suggestions for coordinated and sustainable regional water/land resource development plans.