Global outlook for wood and forests with the bioenergy demand implied by scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
2010
Raunikar, Ronald | Buongiorno, Joseph | Turner, James A. | Zhu, Shushuai
The Global Forest Products Model (GFPM) was modified to link the forest sector to two scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and to represent the utilization of fuelwood and industrial roundwood to produce biofuels. The scenarios examined were a subset of the “story lines” prepared by the IPCC. Each scenario has projections of population and gross domestic product. These projections were used as input in the GFPM simulations. The IPCC also makes projections of forest area, which were integrated in the timber supply sub-model of the GFPM. The IPCC scenarios also predict bioenergy production. These projections were used in the GFPM to determine forest area, forest stock, and the demand, supply, prices, and trade of forest products up to 2060. The main finding concerns the important impact of the high demand for biofuels implied in some of the IPCC scenarios. In particular, scenario A1B would induce a nearly 6-fold increase in the world demand for fuelwood by 2060. As a result, the real price of fuelwood would rise and converge towards the price of industrial roundwood by about 2025. At that point, industrial roundwood, which was used in the past to manufacture sawnwood, panels, and pulp, would begin to be used for energy production. The price of all wood would then continue to rise steadily up to 2060, and the price of manufactured product would increase in concert. The high fuelwood harvest would imply ecologically stressed forests in several countries, even under scenario A2 with a nearly 3-fold increase in fuelwood production by 2060.
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