A quantitative risk assessment of Listeria monocytogenes from prevalence and concentration data: Application to a traditional ready to eat (RTE) meat product

Ready to Eat (RTE) cooked meat products are among the most consumed RTE food subcategories in the EU/EEA. They are also associated with the highest number of identified listeriosis cases per year (>850), thus posing a public health risk especially among the susceptible population. This study estimated the risk of listeriosis from Italian head cheese (Coppa di Testa) consumption using a Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) based on data of prevalence and starting concentrations of Listeria monocytogenes in the product during a 3-year period (n = 1568). A consumer survey (n = 162) was conducted to provide information on domestic storage time and consumption habits, and storage conditions were determined from recordings of temperatures of domestic refrigerators (n = 57). A probabilistic model was designed for the evaluation of the growth of L. monocytogenes at each stage of the product pathway from production to consumption, using Monte Carlo simulations and employing the @Risk software. Risks associated to consumption of vacuum-packed and sliced-at-retail head cheese were assessed: The model predicted that the risk of listeriosis per serving of vacuum-packed product was in the 10⁻⁴ and 10⁻⁶ range (mean) for the high-risk and general populations respectively, and listeriosis cases were estimated to be greater than those due to consumption of sliced product (with risks in the range of 10⁻⁷ and 10⁻⁸). Overall, the model predicted that the mean number of listeriosis cases ranged from 0.001 to 0.24 and from 0.06 to 10 per one hundred thousand people, for the healthy and the high-risk population, respectively. Scenario analyses indicated that better control of the temperature of domestic refrigerators is effective in reducing the predicted risk of listeriosis for the longer stored vacuum-packed product by ~80 % for both the healthy and high-risk populations, whereas a shorter use-by-date of 30 days is an effective risk mitigation measure for both types of packed product. Model assumptions, as well as data gaps are discussed.