Grey optimization Verhulst model and its application in forecasting coal-related CO2 emissions

Duan, Huiming; Luo, Xilin

Grey optimization Verhulst model and its application in forecasting coal-related CO2 emissions

2020

Duan, Huiming | Luo, Xilin

Energy saving and emission reduction are the most concerned issues in the world. Objective and accurate prediction of carbon emissions can provide reference and early warning for the implementation of the government’s environmental strategy. Based on the traditional grey Verhulst model, this paper analyzes the main causes of its errors, introduces the extrapolation method to optimize the background value, and uses particle swarm optimization algorithm to optimize its parameters. In order to evaluate the performance of the models, six commonly statistical evaluation indicators are used to compare the new model with other optimization models and grey universal models, and the effect of the new model is basically better than other models. Finally, it is applied to the prediction of carbon dioxide emission of three kinds of coal in China. The results show that the increase of carbon dioxide related to raw coal slows down in 2016–2020, while the increase of carbon dioxide related to clean coal and other washed coal is 12.7097% and 19.2024%, respectively. Therefore, in order to prevent a strong rebound in carbon emissions, China should increase efforts to save energy and reduce emissions, and reduce energy consumption, especially coal consumption.

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